FutureSearch on real markets

We demonstrate our AI forecasters on real markets: prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, and the US stock market (S&P 500). We forecast each one, then put (paper) money on the positions where we disagree most with the market.

Not investment advice. Forecasts and research are for informational purposes only.

Trading results

Kalshi portfolio+45.9%&+11.1%

as of Jul 27, 2026, 17:56 UTC

Paper trading Feb 26 to July 27, 2026 · real money since June 10, 2026

paper portfolio (simulated)real account
Paper portfolio (simulated) · first traded Feb 26
Balance
$145,914
Unrealized P&L
+$13,907
Annualized ROI
+149.2%
79 open · 23 won · 22 lost · 51.1% win rate
Real account · first traded Jun 10
Balance
$111,106
Unrealized P&L
+$15,148
Annualized ROI
+123.7%
98 open · 24 won · 15 lost · 61.5% win rate

Both portfolios start from a $100,000 bankroll. Realized P&L is from markets that have settled; unrealized P&L is open positions marked to the latest price (net of fees and entry spread). The paper portfolio is simulated; the real account runs the same strategy with real money and is much younger, so its annualized figure is an early extrapolation.

Polymarket paper portfolio-14.5%

as of Jul 27, 2026, 18:15 UTC

Simulated trades, Apr 24 to July 27, 2026

Paper portfolio (simulated) · first traded Apr 24
Balance
$85,492
Unrealized P&L
−$1,972
Annualized ROI
-45.3%
17 open · 24 won · 20 lost · 54.5% win rate

Starts from a $100,000 bankroll and marks every open position to the latest market price.

S&P 500 long–short+32.1%

as of Jul 22, 2026, 00:00 UTC

Forecast Aug 5, 2025 · publicly sold as Stockfisher Aug 8 – Sep 2, 2025

net (long − short)longshort
NetLongShortS&P 500
Total return %32.1%40.4%-8.4%19.4%
CAGR %33.7%42.5%-8.7%20.4%
Ann. volatility %13.1%16.7%10.9%13.8%
Sharpe (rf=0%)2.041.96-0.721.32
Max drawdown %-7.6%-7.6%-11.6%-8.9%
Beta vs S&P 5000.490.81-0.431.00
Alpha (ann.) %17.6%18.0%-0.1%0.0%
% positive months73%64%27%73%

Industry-neutral, dollar-neutral paper portfolio built from FutureSearch's August 5, 2025 forecasts of each S&P 500 company's revenue, margin, and shareholder payout through 2035: long the most undervalued name and short the bottom half within each GICS industry (51 long bets, 231 short bets). Both baskets plotted as underlying returns; net = long − short. No commissions, borrow cost, or dividends. Read more on our methodology: can AI forecast stocks through fundamental analysis?, calculating intrinsic value from scratch, and a superforecasting approach to stock fundamentals. Not investment advice.

Our forecasts and trades

Prediction Market Positions

204 of 204 positions

NO

Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

won
Shares29,566
Entry price10¢
Proceeds$29,566
Realized P&L+$26,609
OutcomeNO
fs 87%
mkt 90%
View market ↗resolved Jun 9our p(yes) 87%
NO

Will the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 3% and 6%: Yes, 3-6%

won
Shares9,260
Entry price
Proceeds$9,260
Realized P&L+$8,726
OutcomeNO
fs 92%
mkt 94%
View market ↗resolved May 18our p(yes) 92%
NO

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.0% in Q1 2026: Above 2.0%

won
Shares8,504
Entry price40¢
Proceeds$8,504
Realized P&L+$5,101
OutcomeNO
fs 45%
mkt 52%
View market ↗resolved May 2our p(yes) 45%
YES

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

open
Shares20,231
Avg paid
Last27¢
Unrealized+$4,222
Value$5,472
fs 10%
mkt 27%
View market ↗forecast Jul 2our p(yes) 10%
NO

When will DHS be funded again: Before Apr 1, 2026

won
Shares7,653
Entry price48¢
Proceeds$7,653
Realized P&L+$4,001
OutcomeNO
fs 28%
mkt 36%
View market ↗resolved Apr 3our p(yes) 28%
NO

Which leaders will leave office in 2026? [Subquestion: Miguel Díaz-Canel]

open
Shares7,963
Avg paid41¢
Last87¢
Unrealized+$3,615
Value$6,888
fs 29%
mkt 14%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 29%
NO

Will Toby Doeden be the Republican nominee for Governor in South Dakota?

open
Shares6,000
Avg paid49¢
Last96¢
Unrealized+$2,811
Value$5,751
fs 5%
mkt 4%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 5%
NO

Will Abdul El-Sayed be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan?

open
Shares23,281
Avg paid22¢
Last34¢
Unrealized+$2,621
Value$7,799
fs 60%
mkt 67%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 60%
NO

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

won
Shares6,346
Entry price63¢
Proceeds$6,346
Realized P&L+$2,346
OutcomeNO
fs 18%
mkt 37%
View market ↗resolved Jun 9our p(yes) 18%
NO

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

won
Shares6,086
Entry price66¢
Proceeds$6,086
Realized P&L+$2,086
OutcomeNO
fs 10%
mkt 34%
View market ↗resolved Jun 9our p(yes) 10%
NO

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

won
Shares4,918
Entry price61¢
Proceeds$4,918
Realized P&L+$1,895
OutcomeNO
fs 10%
mkt 39%
View market ↗resolved Jun 9our p(yes) 10%
NO

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

won
Shares4,678
Entry price60¢
Proceeds$4,678
Realized P&L+$1,871
OutcomeNO
fs 15%
mkt 40%
View market ↗resolved Jul 27our p(yes) 15%
NO

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before June 1, 2026: Before Jun 1, 2026

won
Shares6,172
Entry price73¢
Proceeds$6,172
Realized P&L+$1,663
OutcomeNO
fs 1%
mkt 27%
View market ↗resolved Jun 9our p(yes) 1%
YES

Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

won
Shares3,884
Entry price58¢
Proceeds$3,884
Realized P&L+$1,623
OutcomeYES
fs 61%
mkt 58%
View market ↗resolved May 27our p(yes) 61%
NO

Texas Republican Senate nominee: John Cornyn

won
Shares2,231
Entry price28¢
Proceeds$2,231
Realized P&L+$1,617
OutcomeNO
View market ↗resolved May 27
NO

When will DHS be funded again: Before Apr 22, 2026

won
Shares4,786
Entry price70¢
Proceeds$4,786
Realized P&L+$1,445
OutcomeNO
fs 21%
mkt 32%
View market ↗resolved Apr 24our p(yes) 21%
YES

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

won
Shares2,675
Entry price46¢
Proceeds$2,675
Realized P&L+$1,436
OutcomeYES
fs 50%
mkt 46%
YES

When will Pam Bondi depart as Attorney General: Before Apr 16, 2026

won
Shares5,499
Entry price74¢
Proceeds$5,499
Realized P&L+$1,420
OutcomeYES
fs 93%
mkt 73%
View market ↗resolved Apr 10our p(yes) 93%
NO

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?

won
Shares4,194
Entry price67¢
Proceeds$4,194
Realized P&L+$1,387
OutcomeNO
fs 25%
mkt 33%
View market ↗resolved Jun 9our p(yes) 25%
NO

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

open
Shares5,680
Avg paid64¢
Last88¢
Unrealized+$1,324
Value$4,970
fs 12%
mkt 13%
View market ↗forecast Jul 2our p(yes) 12%
NO

Will Kash Patel leaves as FBI Director before Jul 1, 2026?

won
Shares4,398
Entry price71¢
Proceeds$4,398
Realized P&L+$1,273
OutcomeNO
fs 25%
mkt 29%
View market ↗resolved Jul 2our p(yes) 25%
NO

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...: Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?

won
Shares4,607
Entry price73¢
Proceeds$4,607
Realized P&L+$1,266
OutcomeNO
fs 38%
mkt 27%
View market ↗resolved Jul 2our p(yes) 38%
NO

CPI year-over-year in Jun 2026: Exactly 3.7%

won
Shares5,306
Entry price77¢
Proceeds$5,306
Realized P&L+$1,208
OutcomeNO
fs 18%
mkt 23%
View market ↗resolved Jul 27our p(yes) 18%
NO

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2026: Before Jul 1, 2026

won
Shares4,138
Entry price71¢
Proceeds$4,138
Realized P&L+$1,182
OutcomeNO
fs 10%
mkt 29%
View market ↗resolved Jul 27our p(yes) 10%
YES

Will Haley Stevens be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan?

open
Shares5,883
Avg paid17¢
Last35¢
Unrealized+$1,085
Value$2,059
fs 40%
mkt 35%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 40%
NO

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year: Before June

won
Shares5,099
Entry price79¢
Proceeds$5,099
Realized P&L+$1,048
OutcomeNO
fs 3%
mkt 21%
View market ↗resolved Jun 9our p(yes) 3%
NO

When will DHS receive full-year funding: Before Apr 1, 2026

won
Shares3,379
Entry price70¢
Proceeds$3,379
Realized P&L+$1,010
OutcomeNO
fs 21%
mkt 32%
View market ↗resolved Apr 3our p(yes) 21%
YES

Will any individual in connection with the Minnesota daycare fraud investigations be charged with a fraud, theft, embezzlement, bribery, money laundering, or conspiracy crime before Sep 1, 2026?

won
Shares2,066
Entry price52¢
Proceeds$2,066
Realized P&L+$999
OutcomeYES
View market ↗resolved May 27
NO

Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-06-01T14:00:00.000Z: Before June 1, 2026

won
Shares5,993
Entry price83¢
Proceeds$5,993
Realized P&L+$994
OutcomeNO
fs 2%
mkt 17%
View market ↗resolved Jun 9our p(yes) 2%
NO

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2026?

open
Shares5,337
Avg paid45¢
Last62¢
Unrealized+$887
Value$3,282
fs 29%
mkt 39%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 29%
NO

Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?

won
Shares4,793
Entry price83¢
Proceeds$4,793
Realized P&L+$793
OutcomeNO
fs 8%
mkt 17%
View market ↗resolved Jul 27our p(yes) 8%
NO

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before May 15, 2026?

won
Shares4,856
Entry price85¢
Proceeds$4,856
Realized P&L+$736
OutcomeNO
fs 5%
mkt 15%
View market ↗resolved May 27our p(yes) 5%
NO

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before May 1, 2026?

won
Shares3,825
Entry price81¢
Proceeds$3,825
Realized P&L+$734
OutcomeNO
fs 8%
mkt 19%
View market ↗resolved May 18our p(yes) 8%
YES

When will Pam Bondi depart as Attorney General: Before May 1, 2026

won
Shares4,798
Entry price85¢
Proceeds$4,798
Realized P&L+$720
OutcomeYES
fs 99%
mkt 85%
View market ↗resolved Apr 10our p(yes) 99%
NO

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before August 1, 2026?

open
Shares2,994
Avg paid79¢
Last99¢
Unrealized+$612
Value$2,964
fs 0%
mkt 1%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 0%
NO

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

open
Shares6,519
Avg paid56¢
Last65¢
Unrealized+$574
Value$4,205
fs 39%
mkt 36%
View market ↗forecast Jul 2our p(yes) 39%
NO

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

won
Shares4,520
Entry price88¢
Proceeds$4,520
Realized P&L+$520
OutcomeNO
fs 6%
mkt 12%
View market ↗resolved Jun 9our p(yes) 6%
NO

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before September 1, 2026?

open
Shares2,069
Avg paid67¢
Last92¢
Unrealized+$511
Value$1,893
fs 6%
mkt 8%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 6%
NO

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

won
Shares4,067
Entry price88¢
Proceeds$4,067
Realized P&L+$508
OutcomeNO
fs 24%
mkt 12%
View market ↗resolved Jul 2our p(yes) 24%
NO

US-Iran nuclear deal? [Subquestion: Before August]

open
Shares2,719
Avg paid82¢
Last100¢
Unrealized+$480
Value$2,709
fs 7%
mkt 0%
NO

Which leaders will leave office in 2026? [Subquestion: Benjamin Netanyahu]

open
Shares7,854
Avg paid47¢
Last53¢
Unrealized+$467
Value$4,123
fs 29%
mkt 48%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 29%
NO

Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

won
Shares1,143
Entry price60¢
Proceeds$1,143
Realized P&L+$457
OutcomeNO
fs 38%
mkt 40%
View market ↗resolved May 27our p(yes) 38%
NO

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

won
Shares4,444
Entry price90¢
Proceeds$4,444
Realized P&L+$444
OutcomeNO
fs 7%
mkt 10%
View market ↗resolved Jun 9our p(yes) 7%
NO

When will FISA be reauthorized again: Before Oct 1, 2026

open
Shares2,371
Avg paid41¢
Last59¢
Unrealized+$422
Value$1,399
fs 59%
mkt 41%
View market ↗forecast Jul 2our p(yes) 59%
YES

Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026: 330000 or more

won
Shares806
Entry price53¢
Proceeds$806
Realized P&L+$379
OutcomeYES
fs 57%
mkt 53%
View market ↗resolved Apr 3our p(yes) 57%
YES

Who will win the 2026 U.S. Virgin Islands gubernatorial election?

open
Shares3,560
Avg paid12¢
Last23¢
Unrealized+$374
Value$801
fs 15%
mkt 23%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 15%
NO

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...: Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?

won
Shares1,054
Entry price66¢
Proceeds$1,054
Realized P&L+$355
OutcomeNO
fs 28%
mkt 34%
View market ↗resolved Jun 9our p(yes) 28%
NO

Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $6.50 in January 2027?

open
Shares2,402
Avg paid74¢
Last89¢
Unrealized+$348
Value$2,126
fs 10%
mkt 12%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 10%
NO

Israel closes its airspace by...: Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

won
Shares1,384
Entry price76¢
Proceeds$1,384
Realized P&L+$333
OutcomeNO
fs 21%
mkt 24%
NO

Brazil Presidential Election: Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

open
Shares4,394
Avg paid83¢
Last90¢
Unrealized+$328
Value$3,974
fs 4%
mkt 10%
View market ↗forecast Jul 2our p(yes) 4%
NO

Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z?

open
Shares1,037
Avg paid65¢
Last95¢
Unrealized+$311
Value$980
fs 9%
mkt 5%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 9%
YES

Will average **gas prices** be above $3.70?

open
Shares665
Avg paid53¢
Last100¢
Unrealized+$309
Value$662
fs 99%
mkt 100%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 99%
NO

Will James Fishback receive at least 10% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida Republican Governor primary?

open
Shares684
Avg paid36¢
Last79¢
Unrealized+$295
Value$540
fs 24%
mkt 21%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 24%
NO

Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race?

open
Shares4,344
Avg paid41¢
Last47¢
Unrealized+$246
Value$2,020
fs 41%
mkt 53%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 41%
NO

Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Jul 1, 2026: Before July

won
Shares2,431
Entry price90¢
Proceeds$2,431
Realized P&L+$238
OutcomeNO
fs 3%
mkt 10%
View market ↗resolved Jul 2our p(yes) 3%
NO

Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $5.00 in January 2027?

open
Shares1,867
Avg paid63¢
Last76¢
Unrealized+$233
Value$1,409
fs 26%
mkt 25%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 26%
NO

Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election?

open
Shares9,047
Avg paid
Last
Unrealized+$226
Value$588
fs 94%
mkt 94%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 94%
YES

Will the United States have at least 4,700 data centers listed in 2026?

open
Shares520
Avg paid57¢
Last98¢
Unrealized+$211
Value$507
fs 96%
mkt 98%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 96%
NO

Will the federal gas tax be suspended? [Subquestion: Before Jan 1, 2027]

open
Shares4,400
Avg paid66¢
Last71¢
Unrealized+$202
Value$3,102
fs 12%
mkt 30%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 12%
NO

Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026? [Subquestion: Oklo]

open
Shares975
Avg paid69¢
Last88¢
Unrealized+$190
Value$858
fs 5%
mkt 12%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 5%
NO

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?

open
Shares993
Avg paid78¢
Last97¢
Unrealized+$186
Value$958
fs 2%
mkt 4%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 2%
NO

Will James McDonald be confirmed as U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York before Jan 1, 2027?

open
Shares300
Avg paid28¢
Last90¢
Unrealized+$185
Value$270
fs 24%
mkt 10%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 24%
YES

Brazil Presidential Election: Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

open
Shares9,063
Avg paid22¢
Last24¢
Unrealized+$169
Value$2,162
fs 23%
mkt 24%
View market ↗forecast Jul 2our p(yes) 23%
YES

Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race?

open
Shares2,417
Avg paid17¢
Last24¢
Unrealized+$168
Value$568
fs 25%
mkt 24%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 25%
NO

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $66.50 by Jul 31, 2026?

open
Shares229
Avg paid24¢
Last97¢
Unrealized+$168
Value$223
fs 2%
mkt 3%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 2%
NO

Will James McDonald be confirmed as U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York before Oct 1, 2026?

open
Shares330
Avg paid44¢
Last94¢
Unrealized+$164
Value$309
fs 12%
mkt 6%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 12%
NO

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

open
Shares3,152
Avg paid83¢
Last88¢
Unrealized+$155
Value$2,758
fs 8%
mkt 13%
View market ↗forecast Jul 2our p(yes) 8%
NO

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

open
Shares4,551
Avg paid63¢
Last67¢
Unrealized+$148
Value$3,027
fs 29%
mkt 34%
View market ↗forecast Jul 2our p(yes) 29%
NO

Will James McDonald be confirmed as U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York before Aug 8, 2026?

open
Shares475
Avg paid67¢
Last98¢
Unrealized+$147
Value$466
fs 3%
mkt 2%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 3%
NO

Spider-Man: Brand New Day Rotten Tomatoes score?

open
Shares1,399
Avg paid76¢
Last87¢
Unrealized+$147
Value$1,210
fs 14%
mkt 14%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 14%
NO

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?

won
Shares446
Entry price71¢
Proceeds$446
Realized P&L+$129
OutcomeNO
fs 24%
mkt 29%
View market ↗resolved May 27our p(yes) 24%
NO

Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?

open
Shares1,125
Avg paid39¢
Last51¢
Unrealized+$129
Value$568
fs 54%
mkt 50%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 54%
YES

Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $5.5 at 4 PM ET on Jul 31?

open
Shares182
Avg paid25¢
Last89¢
Unrealized+$116
Value$161
fs 94%
mkt 89%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 94%
NO

Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?

open
Shares2,554
Avg paid93¢
Last98¢
Unrealized+$115
Value$2,502
fs 2%
mkt 2%
View market ↗forecast Jul 2our p(yes) 2%
NO

Netanyahu out by...: Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

open
Shares5,504
Avg paid54¢
Last56¢
Unrealized+$113
Value$3,110
fs 40%
mkt 44%
View market ↗forecast Jul 2our p(yes) 40%
YES

Will exactly 1 Senate Democrats lose re-election in 2026?

open
Shares2,004
Avg paid18¢
Last23¢
Unrealized+$110
Value$461
fs 26%
mkt 23%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 26%
YES

Michael Saylor net worth on Dec 31, 2026?

open
Shares213
Avg paid
Last56¢
Unrealized+$104
Value$118
fs 21%
mkt 56%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 21%
YES

Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $1.50 in February 2027?

open
Shares437
Avg paid66¢
Last90¢
Unrealized+$103
Value$391
fs 94%
mkt 90%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 94%
NO

Will Lisa Demuth be the Republican nominee for Governor in Minnesota?

open
Shares4,667
Avg paid54¢
Last56¢
Unrealized+$103
Value$2,637
fs 31%
mkt 44%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 31%
NO

Will a new nuclear reactor be approved by Dec 31, 2026? [Subquestion: Grants license]

open
Shares1,238
Avg paid81¢
Last90¢
Unrealized+$102
Value$1,109
fs 3%
mkt 10%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 3%
YES

Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $2.50 in January 2027?

open
Shares415
Avg paid59¢
Last83¢
Unrealized+$98
Value$342
fs 83%
mkt 83%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 83%
YES

Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $1.50 in January 2027?

open
Shares638
Avg paid78¢
Last93¢
Unrealized+$93
Value$590
fs 94%
mkt 93%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 94%
YES

Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?

open
Shares585
Avg paid36¢
Last52¢
Unrealized+$91
Value$301
fs 45%
mkt 52%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 45%
NO

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?

won
Shares1,751
Entry price95¢
Proceeds$1,751
Realized P&L+$88
OutcomeNO
fs 2%
mkt 5%
View market ↗resolved Jul 2our p(yes) 2%
NO

CPI year-over-year in Jun 2026: Exactly 3.8%

won
Shares204
Entry price60¢
Proceeds$204
Realized P&L+$82
OutcomeNO
fs 32%
mkt 40%
View market ↗resolved Jul 27our p(yes) 32%
YES

Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $2.00 in January 2027?

open
Shares395
Avg paid72¢
Last91¢
Unrealized+$73
Value$357
fs 90%
mkt 91%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 90%
NO

Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen: Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?

won
Shares391
Entry price81¢
Proceeds$391
Realized P&L+$73
OutcomeNO
fs 16%
mkt 19%
YES

Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $2.00 in February 2027?

open
Shares429
Avg paid68¢
Last85¢
Unrealized+$71
Value$363
fs 89%
mkt 85%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 89%
NO

Will Ella Langley win Best New Artist at the Grammys?

open
Shares518
Avg paid16¢
Last29¢
Unrealized+$67
Value$150
fs 74%
mkt 71%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 74%
NO

Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z?

open
Shares247
Avg paid72¢
Last99¢
Unrealized+$66
Value$243
fs 2%
mkt 2%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 2%
NO

Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Anthropic? [Subquestion: Anthropic]

open
Shares790
Avg paid70¢
Last77¢
Unrealized+$59
Value$609
fs 14%
mkt 23%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 14%
NO

Top Coding AI this month?

open
Shares114
Avg paid51¢
Last98¢
Unrealized+$53
Value$111
fs 74%
mkt 3%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 74%
NO

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?

won
Shares101
Entry price54¢
Proceeds$101
Realized P&L+$46
OutcomeNO
fs 32%
mkt 46%
View market ↗resolved Jun 9our p(yes) 32%
NO

Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?

open
Shares443
Avg paid85¢
Last95¢
Unrealized+$43
Value$419
fs 5%
mkt 6%
View market ↗forecast Jul 2our p(yes) 5%
NO

Will Carey Baker be the Republican nominee for FL-11?

open
Shares100
Avg paid36¢
Last77¢
Unrealized+$41
Value$77
fs 24%
mkt 24%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 24%
YES

Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $2.50 in February 2027?

open
Shares470
Avg paid67¢
Last76¢
Unrealized+$40
Value$355
fs 81%
mkt 76%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 81%
YES

Will DHS funding bill become law before May 1, 2026?

won
Shares96
Entry price69¢
Proceeds$96
Realized P&L+$30
OutcomeYES
fs 37%
mkt 53%
View market ↗resolved May 2our p(yes) 37%
YES

Michael Saylor net worth on Dec 31, 2026?

open
Shares100
Avg paid53¢
Last81¢
Unrealized+$28
Value$81
fs 77%
mkt 81%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 77%
NO

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?

won
Shares106
Entry price74¢
Proceeds$106
Realized P&L+$28
OutcomeNO
fs 23%
mkt 26%
View market ↗resolved Jul 27our p(yes) 23%
YES

Buddy Rotten Tomatoes score?

open
Shares287
Avg paid60¢
Last70¢
Unrealized+$27
Value$199
fs 65%
mkt 70%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 65%
NO

Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Aug 1, 2026?

open
Shares160
Avg paid84¢
Last100¢
Unrealized+$25
Value$159
fs 1%
mkt 0%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 1%
NO

Artist with the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of Aug 2026?

open
Shares421
Avg paid90¢
Last96¢
Unrealized+$25
Value$402
fs 2%
mkt 5%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 2%
YES

Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 2 and 4%?

open
Shares2,328
Avg paid
Last
Unrealized+$22
Value$159
fs 9%
mkt 7%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 9%
YES

Will Silver (SI) hit__ by end of June: Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?

won
Shares33
Entry price36¢
Proceeds$33
Realized P&L+$21
OutcomeYES
fs 38%
mkt 36%
NO

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.30: Above 4.30

won
Shares49
Entry price59¢
Proceeds$49
Realized P&L+$20
OutcomeNO
fs 38%
mkt 42%
View market ↗resolved May 2our p(yes) 38%
NO

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?

won
Shares114
Entry price83¢
Proceeds$114
Realized P&L+$19
OutcomeNO
fs 6%
mkt 17%
View market ↗resolved Jun 9our p(yes) 6%
YES

Buddy Rotten Tomatoes score?

open
Shares222
Avg paid84¢
Last93¢
Unrealized+$19
Value$205
fs 89%
mkt 93%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 89%
YES

Michael Saylor net worth on Dec 31, 2026?

open
Shares908
Avg paid
Last
Unrealized+$18
Value$45
fs 4%
mkt 5%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 4%
NO

Will a NYSE marketwide circuitbreaker happen before 2027? [Subquestion: Before 2027]

open
Shares525
Avg paid81¢
Last84¢
Unrealized+$17
Value$442
fs 8%
mkt 16%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 8%
YES

Will average **gas prices** be above $3.30?

open
Shares260
Avg paid93¢
Last100¢
Unrealized+$17
Value$259
fs 100%
mkt 100%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 100%
NO

Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $5.00 in February 2027?

open
Shares415
Avg paid58¢
Last61¢
Unrealized+$10
Value$251
fs 25%
mkt 40%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 25%
NO

Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $4.50 in February 2027?

open
Shares409
Avg paid57¢
Last60¢
Unrealized+$10
Value$243
fs 38%
mkt 41%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 38%
NO

Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $135.01 by Dec 31, 2026?

open
Shares109
Avg paid68¢
Last77¢
Unrealized+$10
Value$84
fs 24%
mkt 23%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 24%
NO

Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?

open
Shares662
Avg paid42¢
Last43¢
Unrealized+$10
Value$285
fs 56%
mkt 57%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 56%
YES

Will Mike Lindell be the Republican nominee for Governor in Minnesota?

open
Shares401
Avg paid52¢
Last54¢
Unrealized+$6
Value$215
fs 61%
mkt 54%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 61%
YES

Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?

open
Shares300
Avg paid17¢
Last19¢
Unrealized+$5
Value$57
fs 22%
mkt 19%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 22%
YES

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?

open
Shares220
Avg paid
Last
Unrealized+$4
Value$13
fs 8%
mkt 6%
View market ↗forecast Jul 2our p(yes) 8%
NO

Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Jun 1, 2026: Before June

won
Shares27
Entry price86¢
Proceeds$27
Realized P&L+$4
OutcomeNO
fs 0%
mkt 14%
View market ↗resolved Jun 9our p(yes) 0%
NO

Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?

open
Shares82
Avg paid51¢
Last56¢
Unrealized+$4
Value$46
fs 42%
mkt 44%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 42%
NO

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

won
Shares11
Entry price85¢
Proceeds$11
Realized P&L+$2
OutcomeNO
fs 7%
mkt 15%
View market ↗resolved Jul 2our p(yes) 7%
YES

Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?

open
Shares264
Avg paid13¢
Last14¢
Unrealized+$2
Value$37
fs 18%
mkt 14%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 18%
YES

Above 10 New World screwworm infestation cases in the United States during 2026 [Subquestion: Above 10]

open
Shares0
Avg paid13¢
Last
Unrealized−$0
Value$0
fs 1%
mkt 5%
NO

Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $4.00 in January 2027?

open
Shares419
Avg paid42¢
Last42¢
Unrealized−$2
Value$174
fs 53%
mkt 59%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 53%
NO

Which states will robotaxi be offered to in 2026? [Subquestion: Nevada]

open
Shares66
Avg paid19¢
Last13¢
Unrealized−$4
Value$9
fs 67%
mkt 87%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 67%
NO

Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Minnesota?

open
Shares219
Avg paid21¢
Last19¢
Unrealized−$5
Value$41
fs 69%
mkt 82%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 69%
NO

Largest Company end of June: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

lost
Shares85
Entry price
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$6
OutcomeYES
fs 92%
mkt 93%
YES

Will the Reserve Bank of India Maintain current rate at the August Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

open
Shares322
Avg paid70¢
Last68¢
Unrealized−$7
Value$217
fs 81%
mkt 68%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 81%
YES

CPI year-over-year in Jun 2026: Exactly 2.3%

lost
Shares206
Entry price
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$8
OutcomeNO
View market ↗resolved Jul 27
NO

Will Michele Tafoya be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Minnesota?

open
Shares124
Avg paid10¢
Last
Unrealized−$9
Value$3
fs 95%
mkt 97%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 95%
NO

Artist with the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of Aug 2026?

open
Shares158
Avg paid17¢
Last11¢
Unrealized−$9
Value$17
fs 84%
mkt 89%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 84%
NO

Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $7 at 4 PM ET on Jul 31?

open
Shares105
Avg paid89¢
Last76¢
Unrealized−$14
Value$79
fs 39%
mkt 24%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 39%
NO

Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Aug 1, 2026?

open
Shares36
Avg paid45¢
Last
Unrealized−$15
Value$1
fs 88%
mkt 97%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 88%
NO

Will there be more than 3000 measles cases in 2026?

open
Shares559
Avg paid12¢
Last
Unrealized−$16
Value$50
fs 84%
mkt 91%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 84%
NO

What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June: Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?

lost
Shares34
Entry price52¢
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$18
OutcomeYES
fs 44%
mkt 48%
NO

Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $4.50 in January 2027?

open
Shares415
Avg paid57¢
Last53¢
Unrealized−$19
Value$218
fs 41%
mkt 48%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 41%
NO

Which states will robotaxi be offered to in 2026? [Subquestion: Arizona]

open
Shares200
Avg paid19¢
Last10¢
Unrealized−$19
Value$19
fs 61%
mkt 91%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 61%
NO

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in March 2026?

lost
Shares103
Entry price19¢
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$19
OutcomeYES
fs 80%
mkt 86%
View market ↗resolved Apr 10our p(yes) 80%
NO

Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $3.50 in January 2027?

open
Shares483
Avg paid42¢
Last38¢
Unrealized−$22
Value$181
fs 62%
mkt 63%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 62%
YES

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.50: Above 4.50

lost
Shares155
Entry price16¢
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$25
OutcomeNO
fs 18%
mkt 12%
View market ↗resolved May 2our p(yes) 18%
YES

CPI year-over-year in Jun 2026: Exactly 3.9%

lost
Shares132
Entry price21¢
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$28
OutcomeNO
fs 28%
mkt 21%
View market ↗resolved Jul 27our p(yes) 28%
NO

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?

open
Shares2,829
Avg paid
Last
Unrealized−$29
Value$99
fs 88%
mkt 97%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 88%
YES

Will legislation that, upon becoming law, results in the Department of Homeland Security being funded at 12:01 AM ET the calendar day after enactment become law before Apr 15, 2026?

lost
Shares330
Entry price
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$31
OutcomeNO
fs 6%
mkt 5%
View market ↗resolved Apr 24our p(yes) 6%
YES

Michael Saylor net worth on Dec 31, 2026?

open
Shares443
Avg paid12¢
Last
Unrealized−$33
Value$22
fs 13%
mkt 5%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 13%
NO

Week 30: Price of NVIDIA's B200 compute at end of week: Above $6.00

lost
Shares62
Entry price61¢
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$38
OutcomeYES
fs 31%
mkt 39%
View market ↗resolved Jul 27our p(yes) 31%
NO

Will Mike Mazzei be the Republican nominee for Governor in Oklahoma?

open
Shares6,502
Avg paid21¢
Last21¢
Unrealized−$46
Value$1,333
fs 79%
mkt 80%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 79%
YES

CPI core year-over-year in Jun 2026: Exactly 2.3%

lost
Shares1,603
Entry price
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$46
OutcomeNO
View market ↗resolved Jul 27
YES

Will Kendall Qualls be the Republican nominee for Governor in Minnesota?

open
Shares1,750
Avg paid
Last
Unrealized−$46
Value$27
fs 7%
mkt 2%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 7%
NO

Week 29: Price of NVIDIA's B200 compute at end of week: Above $6.50

lost
Shares57
Entry price92¢
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$52
OutcomeYES
fs 5%
mkt 8%
View market ↗resolved Jul 27our p(yes) 5%
NO

Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $6.5 at 4 PM ET on Jul 31?

open
Shares210
Avg paid74¢
Last49¢
Unrealized−$54
Value$102
fs 64%
mkt 52%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 64%
YES

Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Minnesota?

open
Shares1,510
Avg paid23¢
Last19¢
Unrealized−$55
Value$287
fs 30%
mkt 19%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 30%
YES

Powell leaves before May 2026?

lost
Shares1,396
Entry price
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$56
OutcomeNO
fs 3%
mkt 3%
View market ↗resolved May 2our p(yes) 3%
YES

Will Genter Drummond be the Republican nominee for Governor in Oklahoma?

open
Shares7,592
Avg paid18¢
Last18¢
Unrealized−$62
Value$1,329
fs 20%
mkt 18%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 20%
NO

Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $5 at 4 PM ET on Jul 31?

open
Shares451
Avg paid21¢
Last
Unrealized−$86
Value$9
fs 98%
mkt 98%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 98%
YES

Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?

open
Shares9,241
Avg paid19¢
Last19¢
Unrealized−$90
Value$1,710
fs 24%
mkt 19%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 24%
YES

Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic nominee for MI-13?

open
Shares1,464
Avg paid21¢
Last14¢
Unrealized−$106
Value$205
fs 28%
mkt 14%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 28%
YES

Will Dem Nominee be Graham Platner AND General Election Winner be Republican for Jan 2027?

open
Shares8,000
Avg paid38¢
Last37¢
Unrealized−$120
Value$2,920
fs 41%
mkt 37%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 41%
YES

KY-04 Republican nominee: Thomas Massie

lost
Shares337
Entry price38¢
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$128
OutcomeNO
View market ↗resolved May 27
NO

Spider-Man: Brand New Day Rotten Tomatoes score?

open
Shares2,911
Avg paid36¢
Last32¢
Unrealized−$134
Value$917
fs 61%
mkt 69%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 61%
NO

Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $6 at 4 PM ET on Jul 31?

open
Shares329
Avg paid74¢
Last21¢
Unrealized−$175
Value$69
fs 83%
mkt 79%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 83%
NO

Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026: Pam Bondi

lost
Shares381
Entry price50¢
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$190
OutcomeYES
fs 99%
mkt 99%
View market ↗resolved Apr 10our p(yes) 99%
YES

Will Republicans win the House in 2026?

open
Shares39,000
Avg paid17¢
Last17¢
Unrealized−$195
Value$6,435
fs 21%
mkt 17%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 21%
NO

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their July 2026 meeting?

open
Shares8,000
Avg paid75¢
Last73¢
Unrealized−$200
Value$5,800
fs 20%
mkt 28%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 20%
NO

Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

open
Shares3,803
Avg paid89¢
Last84¢
Unrealized−$202
Value$3,191
fs 7%
mkt 16%
View market ↗forecast Jul 2our p(yes) 7%
NO

When will DHS be funded again: Before Jun 1, 2026

lost
Shares644
Entry price32¢
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$206
OutcomeYES
fs 67%
mkt 69%
View market ↗resolved May 2our p(yes) 67%
NO

Will Francesca Hong be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?

open
Shares3,517
Avg paid23¢
Last17¢
Unrealized−$229
Value$580
fs 72%
mkt 84%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 72%
YES

Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 19000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

open
Shares51,411
Avg paid10¢
Last10¢
Unrealized−$247
Value$4,884
fs 13%
mkt 10%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 13%
NO

Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?

open
Shares5,779
Avg paid33¢
Last28¢
Unrealized−$260
Value$1,647
fs 62%
mkt 72%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 62%
YES

Will Mandela Barnes be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?

open
Shares9,355
Avg paid11¢
Last
Unrealized−$276
Value$706
fs 15%
mkt 8%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 15%
NO

Gas prices in the US in Mar 2026: Above 3.50

lost
Shares13,342
Entry price
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$320
OutcomeYES
fs 97%
mkt 99%
View market ↗resolved Apr 3our p(yes) 97%
NO

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...: Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?

lost
Shares591
Entry price62¢
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$366
OutcomeYES
fs 36%
mkt 38%
View market ↗resolved May 18our p(yes) 36%
NO

Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic nominee for MI-13?

open
Shares4,840
Avg paid21¢
Last14¢
Unrealized−$384
Value$653
fs 70%
mkt 87%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 70%
NO

Will Dem Nominee be Graham Platner AND General Election Winner be Democrat for Jan 2027?

open
Shares7,000
Avg paid42¢
Last37¢
Unrealized−$385
Value$2,555
fs 58%
mkt 64%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 58%
NO

When will a reconciliation bill pass the Senate: Before Jul 1, 2026

lost
Shares2,867
Entry price24¢
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$690
OutcomeYES
fs 74%
mkt 76%
View market ↗resolved Jun 9our p(yes) 74%
NO

GA-14 special election winner: Clayton Fuller

lost
Shares15,195
Entry price
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$760
OutcomeYES
fs 94%
mkt 96%
View market ↗resolved Apr 10our p(yes) 94%
NO

Will Trump’s first officially announced pick for Chairman of the Federal Reserve be confirmed as Chairman of the Federal Reserve before May 15, 2026?

lost
Shares16,170
Entry price
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$775
OutcomeYES
fs 95%
mkt 95%
View market ↗resolved May 18our p(yes) 95%
NO

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Georgia?

open
Shares22,383
Avg paid14¢
Last10¢
Unrealized−$893
Value$2,227
fs 81%
mkt 90%
View market ↗forecast Jul 23our p(yes) 81%
YES

Gas prices in the US in Mar 2026: Above 4.50

lost
Shares7,144
Entry price13¢
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$903
OutcomeNO
fs 20%
mkt 10%
View market ↗resolved Apr 3our p(yes) 20%
NO

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

open
Shares5,483
Avg paid73¢
Last56¢
Unrealized−$956
Value$3,043
fs 12%
mkt 44%
View market ↗forecast Jul 2our p(yes) 12%
YES

How long will the government shutdown last: At least 90 days

lost
Shares1,454
Entry price66¢
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$966
OutcomeNO
fs 35%
mkt 29%
View market ↗resolved May 2our p(yes) 35%
NO

When will a reconciliation bill pass the Senate: Before Jun 14, 2026

lost
Shares2,319
Entry price43¢
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$999
OutcomeYES
fs 52%
mkt 57%
View market ↗resolved Jun 9our p(yes) 52%
YES

Venezuela leader end of 2026: Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

open
Shares10,930
Avg paid19¢
Last10¢
Unrealized−$1,016
Value$1,038
fs 14%
mkt 10%
View market ↗forecast Jul 2our p(yes) 14%
NO

Kristi Noem out as DHS Secretary: Before May 1, 2026

lost
Shares147,690
Entry price
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$1,477
OutcomeYES
fs 25%
mkt 22%
View market ↗resolved Apr 3our p(yes) 25%
NO

Venezuela leader end of 2026: Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

open
Shares12,823
Avg paid30¢
Last18¢
Unrealized−$1,581
Value$2,270
fs 78%
mkt 82%
View market ↗forecast Jul 2our p(yes) 78%
NO

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...: Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?

lost
Shares3,467
Entry price46¢
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$1,594
OutcomeYES
fs 52%
mkt 54%
YES

How many Gold Cards will Trump sell this year: 1 to 5

lost
Shares15,021
Entry price11¢
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$1,615
OutcomeNO
fs 8%
mkt 6%
View market ↗resolved May 2our p(yes) 8%
NO

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

lost
Shares2,882
Entry price74¢
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$2,133
OutcomeYES
fs 17%
mkt 26%
View market ↗resolved May 18our p(yes) 17%
NO

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

open
Shares15,211
Avg paid37¢
Last20¢
Unrealized−$2,455
Value$3,103
fs 72%
mkt 80%
View market ↗forecast Jul 2our p(yes) 72%
NO

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

lost
Shares4,458
Entry price63¢
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$2,807
OutcomeYES
fs 5%
mkt 37%
View market ↗resolved Jul 2our p(yes) 5%
NO

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

open
Shares20,564
Avg paid22¢
Last
Unrealized−$2,957
Value$1,655
fs 85%
mkt 92%
View market ↗forecast Jul 2our p(yes) 85%
YES

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?

lost
Shares46,497
Entry price
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$3,645
OutcomeNO
fs 88%
mkt 8%
NO

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...: US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

lost
Shares11,395
Entry price32¢
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$3,646
OutcomeYES
fs 42%
mkt 68%
YES

Colombia Presidential Election: Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

lost
Shares22,046
Entry price17¢
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$3,646
OutcomeNO
fs 18%
mkt 17%
NO

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...: US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

lost
Shares5,379
Entry price68¢
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$3,646
OutcomeYES
fs 12%
mkt 32%
NO

Who will win the next Peruvian presidential election: Keiko Fujimori

lost
Shares9,858
Entry price39¢
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$3,877
OutcomeYES
fs 60%
mkt 61%
View market ↗resolved Jul 27our p(yes) 60%
NO

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

lost
Shares11,245
Entry price35¢
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$3,936
OutcomeYES
fs 54%
mkt 65%
View market ↗resolved Jul 27our p(yes) 54%
YES

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

lost
Shares11,405
Entry price35¢
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$3,936
OutcomeNO
fs 45%
mkt 35%
View market ↗resolved Jul 27our p(yes) 45%
NO

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...: Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?

lost
Shares10,772
Entry price37¢
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$4,000
OutcomeYES
fs 58%
mkt 63%
View market ↗resolved May 18our p(yes) 58%
NO

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

lost
Shares8,510
Entry price47¢
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$4,000
OutcomeYES
fs 25%
mkt 53%
View market ↗resolved Jul 2our p(yes) 25%
NO

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by...: Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?

lost
Shares5,723
Entry price70¢
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$4,000
OutcomeYES
fs 10%
mkt 30%
View market ↗resolved May 18our p(yes) 10%
NO

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

lost
Shares7,414
Entry price54¢
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$4,000
OutcomeYES
fs 41%
mkt 46%
View market ↗resolved Jul 2our p(yes) 41%
NO

U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by...: U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?

lost
Shares5,010
Entry price80¢
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$4,000
OutcomeYES
fs 13%
mkt 20%
View market ↗resolved May 18our p(yes) 13%
YES

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?

lost
Shares5,385
Entry price74¢
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$4,000
OutcomeNO
fs 96%
mkt 74%
View market ↗resolved May 18our p(yes) 96%
NO

Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

lost
Shares34,331
Entry price12¢
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$4,223
OutcomeYES
fs 42%
mkt 88%
NO

Colombia Presidential Election: Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

lost
Shares23,062
Entry price23¢
Proceeds$0
Realized P&L−$5,316
OutcomeYES
fs 23%
mkt 77%
View market ↗resolved Jul 2our p(yes) 23%

Stock Forecasts & Positions

477 of 477 companies · upside = FS valuation vs market cap

CompanyTickerBetIndustryMarket capFS valuation, Aug 5 2025Upside
Albemarle CorporationALBlongSpecialty Chemicals$7.9B$61.9B+682%
Centene CorporationCNClongHealthcare Plans$12.4B$93.6B+656%
Molina HealthcareMOHmiddleHealthcare Plans$8.3B$51.2B+520%
Interpublic Group of Companies (The)IPGlongAdvertising Agencies$9.1B$53.4B+490%
ModernaMRNAlongBiotechnology$10.4B$45.3B+335%
General MotorsGMlongAuto Manufacturers$50.7B$218B+330%
Northern TrustNTRSlongAsset Management$24.5B$92.5B+277%
SupermicroSMCIlongComputer Hardware$27.9B$105B+277%
Align TechnologyALGNlongMedical Instruments & Supplies$9.9B$37.4B+277%
Ford Motor CompanyFshortAuto Manufacturers$44.6B$167B+275%
Omnicom GroupOMCshortAdvertising Agencies$14.1B$49.0B+247%
AptivAPTVlongAuto Parts$14.2B$49.0B+246%
Bunge GlobalBGlongFarm Products$16.2B$56.0B+246%
UnitedHealth GroupUNHmiddleHealthcare Plans$234B$787B+236%
Enphase EnergyENPHlongSolar$4.1B$13.4B+231%
PayPalPYPLlongCredit Services$66.3B$217B+227%
Paramount GlobalPARAlongEntertainment$7.0B$22.6B+223%
MGM ResortsMGMlongResorts & Casinos$9.6B$30.1B+215%
AES CorporationAESlongUtilities - Diversified$9.1B$28.7B+214%
Synchrony FinancialSYFmiddleCredit Services$25.8B$81.0B+213%
LyondellBasellLYBmiddleSpecialty Chemicals$15.9B$49.6B+211%
Eastman Chemical CompanyEMNmiddleSpecialty Chemicals$7.0B$21.7B+211%
Arch Capital GroupACGLlongInsurance - Diversified$33.7B$104B+209%
APA CorporationAPAlongOil & Gas E&P$6.5B$18.9B+190%
Cardinal HealthCAHlongMedical Distribution$37.4B$108B+189%
Norwegian Cruise Line HoldingsNCLHlongTravel Services$11.2B$32.3B+188%
Fifth Third BancorpFITBlongBanks - Regional$27.5B$79.4B+188%
HumanaHUMshortHealthcare Plans$31.2B$88.4B+184%
CVS HealthCVSshortHealthcare Plans$80.6B$227B+182%
Elevance HealthELVshortHealthcare Plans$64.1B$178B+177%
CF IndustriesCFlongAgricultural Inputs$14.8B$38.5B+161%
Apollo Global ManagementAPOmiddleAsset Management$83.4B$216B+159%
Caesars EntertainmentCZRmiddleResorts & Casinos$5.2B$13.4B+159%
Universal Health ServicesUHSlongMedical Care Facilities$10.5B$26.5B+152%
M&T BankMTBmiddleBanks - Regional$29.0B$72.4B+150%
AirbnbABNBmiddleTravel Services$80.5B$200B+148%
Lamb WestonLWlongPackaged Foods$7.2B$17.8B+148%
Baxter InternationalBAXmiddleMedical Instruments & Supplies$11.5B$28.6B+147%
Akamai TechnologiesAKAMlongSoftware - Infrastructure$10.6B$26.2B+147%
Principal Financial GroupPFGmiddleAsset Management$17.1B$42.3B+147%
United Parcel ServiceUPSlongIntegrated Freight & Logistics$73.0B$180B+146%
Global PaymentsGPNlongSpecialty Business Services$20.9B$51.1B+145%
Devon EnergyDVNmiddleOil & Gas E&P$20.8B$50.1B+141%
ComcastCMCSAlongTelecom Services$119B$275B+131%
Huntington BancsharesHBANmiddleBanks - Regional$23.5B$53.7B+129%
CignaCIshortHealthcare Plans$72.1B$160B+122%
PulteGroupPHMlongResidential Construction$23.7B$52.3B+120%
Southwest AirlinesLUVlongAirlines$15.6B$34.4B+120%
LennarLENmiddleResidential Construction$30.8B$67.3B+119%
SolventumSOLVmiddleMedical Instruments & Supplies$12.6B$27.0B+115%
ON SemiconductorONlongSemiconductors$19.2B$41.2B+114%
EOG ResourcesEOGmiddleOil & Gas E&P$63.6B$136B+114%
Lululemon AthleticaLULUlongApparel Retail$23.6B$49.7B+111%
Diamondback EnergyFANGmiddleOil & Gas E&P$42.0B$88.4B+110%
Mosaic Company (The)MOSshortAgricultural Inputs$9.8B$20.5B+109%
Chubb LimitedCBlongInsurance - Property & Casualty$107B$225B+109%
Delta Air LinesDALshortAirlines$35.3B$73.4B+108%
Travelers Companies (The)TRVmiddleInsurance - Property & Casualty$60.2B$125B+107%
T. Rowe PriceTROWmiddleAsset Management$23.2B$48.0B+107%
Smurfit WestrockSWlongPackaging & Containers$22.3B$46.1B+107%
Molson Coors Beverage CompanyTAPlongBeverages - Brewers$9.9B$20.5B+106%
CarnivalCCLmiddleTravel Services$39.6B$81.4B+105%
Regeneron PharmaceuticalsREGNmiddleBiotechnology$58.8B$120B+104%
Archer Daniels MidlandADMshortFarm Products$27.3B$55.4B+103%
Micron TechnologyMUmiddleSemiconductors$122B$247B+103%
MetLifeMETlongInsurance - Life$51.0B$103B+102%
Charter CommunicationsCHTRmiddleTelecom Services$35.8B$72.2B+102%
SempraSREshortUtilities - Diversified$52.9B$105B+99%
LKQ CorporationLKQmiddleAuto Parts$7.7B$15.2B+98%
Stanley Black & DeckerSWKlongTools & Accessories$10.6B$20.6B+95%
CognizantCTSHlongInformation Technology Services$34.6B$67.3B+94%
Regions Financial CorporationRFmiddleBanks - Regional$22.3B$42.9B+92%
FedExFDXmiddleIntegrated Freight & Logistics$53.4B$103B+92%
PNC Financial ServicesPNCmiddleBanks - Regional$74.3B$141B+90%
FiservFImiddleInformation Technology Services$71.5B$135B+89%
EPAM SystemsEPAMmiddleInformation Technology Services$8.6B$16.2B+89%
Western DigitalWDCmiddleComputer Hardware$25.7B$48.3B+88%
Globe LifeGLmiddleInsurance - Life$11.7B$21.8B+87%
Ameriprise FinancialAMPmiddleAsset Management$49.6B$92.6B+87%
Raymond James FinancialRJFmiddleAsset Management$34.2B$63.2B+85%
HP Inc.HPQmiddleComputer Hardware$23.5B$43.1B+84%
AllstateALLmiddleInsurance - Property & Casualty$55.1B$101B+83%
Applied MaterialsAMATlongSemiconductor Equipment & Materials$143B$261B+83%
QualcommQCOMmiddleSemiconductors$157B$287B+83%
Conagra BrandsCAGmiddlePackaged Foods$9.0B$16.4B+81%
Deckers BrandsDECKlongFootwear & Accessories$15.7B$28.2B+80%
Hewlett Packard EnterpriseHPElongCommunication Equipment$26.4B$47.1B+78%
Skyworks SolutionsSWKSmiddleSemiconductors$10.1B$18.0B+77%
DaVitaDVAshortMedical Care Facilities$9.8B$17.2B+75%
NucorNUElongSteel$32.0B$55.7B+74%
HCA HealthcareHCAshortMedical Care Facilities$85.7B$149B+74%
Prudential FinancialPRUshortInsurance - Life$36.6B$63.8B+74%
TKO Group HoldingsTKOmiddleEntertainment$12.7B$22.1B+74%
Cincinnati FinancialCINFmiddleInsurance - Property & Casualty$24.1B$41.7B+73%
Bristol Myers SquibbBMYlongDrug Manufacturers - General$91.2B$158B+73%
Steel DynamicsSTLDshortSteel$18.1B$31.1B+71%
News CorpNWS, NWSAshortEntertainment$35.0B$10.1B−71%
GartnerITmiddleInformation Technology Services$18.5B$31.5B+71%
ViatrisVTRSlongDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic$10.3B$17.5B+70%
State Street CorporationSTTshortAsset Management$31.4B$52.7B+68%
Match GroupMTCHlongInternet Content & Information$9.1B$15.3B+67%
VentasVTRshortREIT - Healthcare Facilities$31.1B$10.5B−66%
Occidental PetroleumOXYmiddleOil & Gas E&P$41.9B$69.4B+66%
CumminsCMIlongSpecialty Industrial Machinery$52.6B$86.9B+65%
U.S. BancorpUSBshortBanks - Regional$69.2B$114B+65%
D. R. HortonDHIshortResidential Construction$45.9B$75.5B+64%
AssurantAIZshortInsurance - Property & Casualty$10.6B$17.5B+64%
Expedia GroupEXPEshortTravel Services$23.5B$38.6B+64%
GE VernovaGEVshortSpecialty Industrial Machinery$181B$65.8B−64%
Bio-TechneTECHmiddleBiotechnology$7.8B$12.8B+64%
AccentureACNmiddleInformation Technology Services$154B$251B+63%
American ExpressAXPmiddleCredit Services$206B$334B+62%
First SolarFSLRshortSolar$19.8B$32.2B+62%
Target CorporationTGTlongDiscount Stores$47.9B$77.0B+61%
NVR, Inc.NVRshortResidential Construction$21.9B$35.1B+60%
HalliburtonHALlongOil & Gas Equipment & Services$18.1B$29.0B+60%
UDR, Inc.UDRshortREIT - Residential$14.5B$5.8B−60%
InvescoIVZshortAsset Management$9.4B$15.0B+60%
Wells FargoWFClongBanks - Diversified$250B$398B+59%
Axon EnterpriseAXONshortAerospace & Defense$67.8B$27.6B−59%
Live Nation EntertainmentLYVshortEntertainment$35.0B$14.3B−59%
Builders FirstSourceBLDRlongBuilding Products & Equipment$14.5B$23.0B+59%
Howmet AerospaceHWMshortAerospace & Defense$73.4B$30.3B−59%
VerizonVZmiddleTelecom Services$179B$283B+59%
CDW CorporationCDWshortInformation Technology Services$21.8B$34.5B+58%
IncyteINCYshortBiotechnology$15.2B$6.4B−58%
Tyler TechnologiesTYLshortSoftware - Application$26.5B$11.2B−58%
Citizens Financial GroupCFGshortBanks - Regional$20.2B$31.9B+58%
TextronTXTlongAerospace & Defense$13.8B$21.7B+57%
Edison InternationalEIXlongUtilities - Regulated Electric$21.1B$33.1B+57%
SchlumbergerSLBshortOil & Gas Equipment & Services$49.0B$76.8B+57%
General MillsGISmiddlePackaged Foods$26.7B$41.8B+56%
Jacobs SolutionsJlongEngineering & Construction$17.7B$27.3B+54%
BiogenBIIBmiddleDrug Manufacturers - General$19.0B$29.2B+54%
Carrier GlobalCARRmiddleBuilding Products & Equipment$56.3B$86.2B+53%
CoStar GroupCSGPshortReal Estate Services$40.8B$19.2B−53%
AmcorAMCRmiddlePackaging & Containers$21.6B$33.0B+53%
Truist FinancialTFCshortBanks - Regional$55.5B$84.7B+53%
PfizerPFEmiddleDrug Manufacturers - General$136B$207B+52%
Gen DigitalGENlongSoftware - Infrastructure$17.7B$26.8B+52%
Campbell's Company (The)CPBmiddlePackaged Foods$9.7B$14.8B+52%
WelltowerWELLshortREIT - Healthcare Facilities$113B$55.0B−51%
CostcoCOSTshortDiscount Stores$430B$209B−51%
EquinixEQIXshortREIT - Specialty$75.6B$37.3B−51%
Palantir TechnologiesPLTRshortSoftware - Infrastructure$426B$210B−51%
KeyCorpKEYshortBanks - Regional$19.5B$29.3B+51%
CencoraCORmiddleMedical Distribution$55.0B$82.6B+50%
Tyson FoodsTSNshortFarm Products$19.9B$29.9B+50%
Charles River LaboratoriesCRLlongDiagnostics & Research$7.4B$11.0B+49%
GE HealthCareGEHClongMedical Devices$31.9B$47.5B+49%
NvidiaNVDAshortSemiconductors$4,408B$2,285B−48%
IntelINTCmiddleSemiconductors$89.3B$132B+48%
Crown CastleCCIshortREIT - Specialty$45.8B$23.9B−48%
Avery DennisonAVYmiddlePackaging & Containers$13.1B$19.3B+48%
TeradyneTERmiddleSemiconductor Equipment & Materials$16.7B$24.6B+47%
W. R. Berkley CorporationWRBshortInsurance - Property & Casualty$26.8B$39.4B+47%
CorpayCPAYmiddleSoftware - Infrastructure$22.2B$32.7B+47%
WalmartWMTshortDiscount Stores$825B$438B−47%
Quanta ServicesPWRshortEngineering & Construction$57.7B$30.9B−47%
Lam ResearchLRCXshortSemiconductor Equipment & Materials$122B$178B+46%
Texas Pacific Land CorporationTPLshortOil & Gas E&P$21.9B$11.8B−46%
Adobe Inc.ADBElongSoftware - Application$147B$214B+46%
JabilJBLlongElectronic Components$23.7B$34.5B+46%
Loews CorporationLshortInsurance - Property & Casualty$19.5B$28.4B+45%
DayforceDAYlongSoftware - Application$8.5B$12.4B+45%
AmazonAMZNlongInternet Retail$2,371B$3,438B+45%
Dell TechnologiesDELLshortComputer Hardware$90.3B$130B+44%
Fair IsaacFICOshortSoftware - Application$33.5B$18.7B−44%
Cadence Design SystemsCDNSshortSoftware - Application$100B$57.7B−42%
IQVIAIQVmiddleDiagnostics & Research$30.7B$43.6B+42%
Alexandria Real Estate EquitiesARElongREIT - Office$12.6B$17.9B+42%
Lilly (Eli)LLYshortDrug Manufacturers - General$670B$391B−42%
Edwards LifesciencesEWmiddleMedical Devices$46.1B$65.3B+42%
Zimmer BiometZBHmiddleMedical Devices$18.0B$25.5B+41%
NXP SemiconductorsNXPImiddleSemiconductors$51.9B$73.4B+41%
Idexx LaboratoriesIDXXshortDiagnostics & Research$49.9B$29.2B−41%
Snap-onSNAshortTools & Accessories$16.9B$23.8B+41%
DoorDashDASHshortInternet Retail$109B$64.1B−41%
Advanced Micro DevicesAMDshortSemiconductors$264B$156B−41%
Intuitive SurgicalISRGshortMedical Instruments & Supplies$170B$102B−40%
BoeingBAshortAerospace & Defense$170B$102B−40%
American International GroupAIGmiddleInsurance - Diversified$45.6B$63.8B+40%
Vulcan Materials CompanyVMCshortBuilding Materials$37.2B$22.4B−40%
PaccarPCARlongFarm & Heavy Construction Machinery$51.1B$71.4B+40%
Warner Bros. DiscoveryWBDmiddleEntertainment$31.6B$44.1B+39%
Wynn ResortsWYNNshortResorts & Casinos$11.2B$15.6B+39%
Marsh McLennanMMClongInsurance Brokers$98.2B$137B+39%
FastenalFASTshortIndustrial Distribution$54.5B$33.2B−39%
LeidosLDOSshortInformation Technology Services$22.4B$30.8B+38%
American Electric PowerAEPlongUtilities - Regulated Electric$60.7B$83.6B+38%
United Airlines HoldingsUALshortAirlines$28.8B$39.5B+37%
Alphabet Inc.GOOGLshortInternet Content & Information$2,375B$3,254B+37%
Fox CorporationFOXA, FOXshortEntertainment$46.5B$29.5B−37%
Berkshire HathawayBRK.B, BRK.AshortInsurance - Diversified$2,023B$1,285B−36%
Williams CompaniesWMBshortOil & Gas Midstream$71.6B$45.9B−36%
Constellation EnergyCEGshortUtilities - Independent Power Producers$106B$68.1B−36%
Boston ScientificBSXshortMedical Devices$153B$98.6B−35%
Meta PlatformsMETAshortInternet Content & Information$1,939B$2,624B+35%
OneokOKElongOil & Gas Midstream$47.4B$64.0B+35%
Iron MountainIRMshortREIT - Specialty$26.6B$17.3B−35%
CoterraCTRAshortOil & Gas E&P$18.5B$25.0B+35%
CintasCTASshortSpecialty Business Services$90.4B$59.3B−34%
American TowerAMTshortREIT - Specialty$97.8B$64.6B−34%
GarminGRMNshortScientific & Technical Instruments$44.3B$29.6B−33%
O’Reilly AutomotiveORLYshortAuto Parts$88.7B$59.4B−33%
Verisk AnalyticsVRSKshortConsulting Services$38.0B$25.5B−33%
Dollar GeneralDGmiddleDiscount Stores$24.9B$33.0B+32%
Progressive CorporationPGRshortInsurance - Property & Casualty$145B$192B+32%
Palo Alto NetworksPANWshortSoftware - Infrastructure$115B$78.4B−32%
Union Pacific CorporationUNPlongRailroads$134B$176B+32%
Blackstone Inc.BXshortAsset Management$208B$142B−32%
Simon Property GroupSPGshortREIT - Retail$63.2B$43.2B−32%
RevvityRVTYmiddleDiagnostics & Research$10.1B$13.3B+31%
Moody's CorporationMCOshortFinancial Data & Stock Exchanges$95.5B$65.5B−31%
Dominion EnergyDmiddleUtilities - Regulated Electric$52.0B$68.4B+31%
J.B. HuntJBHTmiddleIntegrated Freight & Logistics$13.9B$18.2B+31%
Hartford (The)HIGshortInsurance - Diversified$36.2B$47.5B+31%
CortevaCTVAshortAgricultural Inputs$48.6B$33.4B−31%
Monolithic Power SystemsMPWRshortSemiconductors$38.6B$26.7B−31%
A. O. SmithAOSlongSpecialty Industrial Machinery$9.9B$13.0B+31%
Becton DickinsonBDXmiddleMedical Instruments & Supplies$49.4B$64.5B+31%
Realty IncomeOshortREIT - Retail$51.4B$35.7B−30%
Gilead SciencesGILDshortDrug Manufacturers - General$137B$95.8B−30%
DexcomDXCMmiddleMedical Devices$30.0B$39.0B+30%
Lowe'sLOWlongHome Improvement Retail$134B$174B+30%
Xylem Inc.XYLshortSpecialty Industrial Machinery$35.0B$24.4B−30%
Hilton WorldwideHLTshortLodging$61.4B$43.0B−30%
CrowdStrikeCRWDshortSoftware - Infrastructure$115B$80.6B−30%
ZoetisZTSshortDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic$65.2B$84.6B+30%
Stryker CorporationSYKshortMedical Devices$143B$101B−30%
Intercontinental ExchangeICEshortFinancial Data & Stock Exchanges$108B$75.8B−30%
BXP, Inc.BXPshortREIT - Office$11.7B$8.3B−29%
EquifaxEFXlongConsulting Services$29.6B$21.1B−29%
AmphenolAPHshortElectronic Components$134B$95.1B−29%
Mondelez InternationalMDLZlongConfectioners$80.3B$103B+28%
TE ConnectivityTELmiddleElectronic Components$59.1B$75.6B+28%
Huntington Ingalls IndustriesHIImiddleAerospace & Defense$10.8B$13.8B+27%
Seagate TechnologySTXshortComputer Hardware$31.3B$39.8B+27%
Camden Property TrustCPTshortREIT - Residential$11.4B$8.3B−27%
Deere & CompanyDEshortFarm & Heavy Construction Machinery$138B$175B+27%
PG&E CorporationPCGmiddleUtilities - Regulated Electric$33.3B$42.1B+27%
Bank of AmericaBACmiddleBanks - Diversified$336B$425B+26%
Thermo Fisher ScientificTMOmiddleDiagnostics & Research$170B$214B+26%
Otis WorldwideOTISmiddleSpecialty Industrial Machinery$34.1B$42.9B+26%
Capital OneCOFshortCredit Services$136B$171B+26%
International Flavors & FragrancesIFFmiddleSpecialty Chemicals$16.9B$21.2B+26%
Kimberly-ClarkKMBlongHousehold & Personal Products$45.3B$56.9B+26%
Lockheed MartinLMTmiddleAerospace & Defense$102B$127B+25%
Texas InstrumentsTXNmiddleSemiconductors$169B$211B+25%
Digital RealtyDLRmiddleREIT - Specialty$58.9B$44.3B−25%
Analog DevicesADIshortSemiconductors$110B$82.6B−25%
NetAppNTAPmiddleSoftware - Infrastructure$20.7B$25.7B+24%
IntuitINTUshortSoftware - Application$217B$165B−24%
EntergyETRshortUtilities - Regulated Electric$40.3B$30.6B−24%
Lennox InternationalLIImiddleBuilding Products & Equipment$20.9B$25.9B+24%
GE AerospaceGEshortAerospace & Defense$289B$220B−24%
Nasdaq, Inc.NDAQshortFinancial Data & Stock Exchanges$55.4B$42.4B−24%
Kraft HeinzKHCmiddlePackaged Foods$32.3B$39.7B+23%
UberUBERmiddleSoftware - Application$187B$229B+23%
Arista NetworksANETshortComputer Hardware$174B$134B−23%
Microchip TechnologyMCHPshortSemiconductors$35.7B$27.6B−23%
Motorola SolutionsMSIshortCommunication Equipment$73.8B$57.0B−23%
VerisignVRSNshortSoftware - Infrastructure$25.5B$19.7B−23%
PTC Inc.PTCshortSoftware - Application$25.8B$20.0B−23%
Teledyne TechnologiesTDYshortScientific & Technical Instruments$25.7B$20.0B−22%
3MMMMshortConglomerates$80.3B$62.5B−22%
Quest DiagnosticsDGXmiddleDiagnostics & Research$19.3B$23.6B+22%
Johnson & JohnsonJNJmiddleDrug Manufacturers - General$411B$501B+22%
Vistra Corp.VSTshortUtilities - Independent Power Producers$68.2B$53.4B−22%
Mid-America Apartment CommunitiesMAAshortREIT - Residential$16.9B$13.2B−22%
Block, Inc.SQmiddleSoftware - Infrastructure$46.8B$56.9B+21%
Dollar TreeDLTRmiddleDiscount Stores$24.3B$19.1B−21%
Packaging Corporation of AmericaPKGshortPackaging & Containers$17.3B$20.9B+21%
Ulta BeautyULTAlongSpecialty Retail$23.2B$28.1B+21%
Valero EnergyVLOlongOil & Gas Refining & Marketing$41.5B$50.2B+21%
Martin Marietta MaterialsMLMlongBuilding Materials$36.1B$28.5B−21%
Take-Two InteractiveTTWOshortElectronic Gaming & Multimedia$41.9B$33.2B−21%
Trimble Inc.TRMBmiddleScientific & Technical Instruments$20.1B$15.9B−21%
Marathon PetroleumMPCshortOil & Gas Refining & Marketing$49.4B$59.6B+21%
TransDigm GroupTDGshortAerospace & Defense$78.7B$62.5B−21%
Fidelity National Information ServicesFISshortInformation Technology Services$36.7B$29.1B−21%
RTX CorporationRTXshortAerospace & Defense$208B$166B−20%
Franklin ResourcesBENshortAsset Management$13.1B$15.7B+20%
Regency CentersREGmiddleREIT - Retail$13.4B$10.7B−20%
SBA CommunicationsSBACmiddleREIT - Specialty$23.6B$18.9B−20%
PepsiCoPEPlongBeverages - Non-Alcoholic$193B$232B+20%
DuPontDDshortSpecialty Chemicals$29.6B$23.8B−20%
Nordson CorporationNDSNmiddleSpecialty Industrial Machinery$11.9B$14.3B+20%
Broadridge Financial SolutionsBRshortInformation Technology Services$31.3B$25.2B−20%
TJX CompaniesTJXshortApparel Retail$147B$118B−20%
Waste ManagementWMshortWaste Management$93.3B$75.0B−20%
EcolabECLshortSpecialty Chemicals$76.4B$61.5B−19%
Republic ServicesRSGlongWaste Management$73.5B$59.3B−19%
International PaperIPshortPackaging & Containers$24.5B$29.2B+19%
Merck & Co.MRKmiddleDrug Manufacturers - General$199B$238B+19%
Willis Towers WatsonWTWshortInsurance Brokers$31.8B$25.6B−19%
Vertex PharmaceuticalsVRTXshortBiotechnology$98.8B$118B+19%
Henry ScheinHSICshortMedical Distribution$8.3B$9.9B+19%
NextEra EnergyNEEmiddleUtilities - Regulated Electric$145B$173B+19%
FortinetFTNTshortSoftware - Infrastructure$73.9B$59.9B−19%
Electronic ArtsEAlongElectronic Gaming & Multimedia$40.8B$33.1B−19%
Visa Inc.VshortCredit Services$659B$783B+19%
AT&TTshortTelecom Services$197B$233B+19%
PaycomPAYCmiddleSoftware - Application$12.5B$14.8B+19%
CBRE GroupCBRElongReal Estate Services$46.4B$37.8B−18%
NRG EnergyNRGlongUtilities - Independent Power Producers$29.0B$34.4B+18%
Kinder MorganKMIshortOil & Gas Midstream$59.4B$48.6B−18%
Abbott LaboratoriesABTshortMedical Devices$228B$187B−18%
MSCI Inc.MSCIlongFinancial Data & Stock Exchanges$42.4B$50.1B+18%
AbbVieABBVshortDrug Manufacturers - General$347B$284B−18%
Chevron CorporationCVXshortOil & Gas Integrated$311B$255B−18%
Brown & BrownBROmiddleInsurance Brokers$30.3B$35.7B+18%
PPG IndustriesPPGmiddleSpecialty Chemicals$24.1B$28.4B+18%
GeneracGNRCshortSpecialty Industrial Machinery$11.4B$9.4B−18%
Caterpillar Inc.CATshortFarm & Heavy Construction Machinery$201B$236B+18%
Sherwin-WilliamsSHWshortSpecialty Chemicals$87.4B$72.2B−17%
Morgan StanleyMSlongCapital Markets$226B$264B+17%
Agilent TechnologiesAshortDiagnostics & Research$32.2B$37.7B+17%
StarbucksSBUXlongRestaurants$101B$118B+17%
Workday, Inc.WDAYshortSoftware - Application$63.0B$52.4B−17%
HoneywellHONlongConglomerates$139B$163B+17%
Cooper Companies (The)COOshortMedical Instruments & Supplies$13.6B$11.3B−17%
AutodeskADSKshortSoftware - Application$65.3B$54.4B−17%
PentairPNRshortSpecialty Industrial Machinery$16.8B$14.0B−17%
Trade Desk (The)TTDshortAdvertising Agencies$44.2B$36.9B−17%
Kimco RealtyKIMmiddleREIT - Retail$14.4B$12.1B−16%
NetflixNFLXshortEntertainment$501B$419B−16%
AmgenAMGNshortDrug Manufacturers - General$153B$178B+16%
MastercardMAshortCredit Services$522B$606B+16%
Pinnacle West CapitalPNWmiddleUtilities - Regulated Electric$11.1B$12.8B+16%
Booking HoldingsBKNGshortTravel Services$179B$207B+16%
Charles Schwab CorporationSCHWshortCapital Markets$176B$150B−15%
Oracle CorporationORCLshortSoftware - Infrastructure$720B$615B−15%
Parker HannifinPHshortSpecialty Industrial Machinery$89.1B$76.2B−14%
Procter & GamblePGshortHousehold & Personal Products$358B$307B−14%
Home Depot (The)HDshortHome Improvement Retail$385B$330B−14%
Estée Lauder Companies (The)ELmiddleHousehold & Personal Products$32.4B$37.0B+14%
L3HarrisLHXmiddleAerospace & Defense$51.8B$44.5B−14%
MedtronicMDTmiddleMedical Devices$114B$131B+14%
KKR & Co.KKRshortAsset Management$134B$153B+14%
Corning Inc.GLWshortElectronic Components$54.8B$47.1B−14%
MascoMASshortBuilding Products & Equipment$14.5B$16.6B+14%
Church & DwightCHDshortHousehold & Personal Products$22.5B$19.4B−14%
IBMIBMshortInformation Technology Services$235B$202B−14%
ResMedRMDshortMedical Instruments & Supplies$41.1B$35.4B−14%
S&P GlobalSPGIshortFinancial Data & Stock Exchanges$173B$149B−14%
General DynamicsGDmiddleAerospace & Defense$84.7B$96.4B+14%
BroadcomAVGOshortSemiconductors$1,419B$1,225B−14%
Jack Henry & AssociatesJKHYshortInformation Technology Services$12.1B$10.5B−14%
AmetekAMEshortSpecialty Industrial Machinery$42.8B$37.3B−13%
FortiveFTVmiddleScientific & Technical Instruments$16.1B$14.0B−13%
Expand EnergyEXEshortOil & Gas E&P$24.2B$27.3B+13%
Erie IndemnityERIEshortInsurance Brokers$18.8B$16.3B−13%
McDonald'sMCDshortRestaurants$220B$192B−13%
Keysight TechnologiesKEYSlongScientific & Technical Instruments$27.7B$24.1B−13%
Essex Property TrustESSshortREIT - Residential$17.6B$15.3B−13%
EQT CorporationEQTshortOil & Gas E&P$32.1B$28.0B−13%
KellanovaKshortPackaged Foods$27.8B$31.3B+13%
Pool CorporationPOOLlongIndustrial Distribution$11.6B$13.0B+13%
Public StoragePSAlongREIT - Industrial$49.4B$55.5B+12%
BlackRockBLKshortAsset Management$173B$195B+12%
LabcorpLHshortDiagnostics & Research$21.7B$24.3B+12%
Yum! BrandsYUMshortRestaurants$39.3B$34.5B−12%
Hormel FoodsHRLshortPackaged Foods$15.5B$17.4B+12%
West Pharmaceutical ServicesWSTshortMedical Instruments & Supplies$17.1B$15.0B−12%
CitigroupCmiddleBanks - Diversified$170B$191B+12%
KenvueKVUEshortHousehold & Personal Products$41.2B$36.2B−12%
Cboe Global MarketsCBOEmiddleFinancial Data & Stock Exchanges$25.9B$23.0B−11%
Monster BeverageMNSTshortBeverages - Non-Alcoholic$58.0B$51.4B−11%
Extra Space StorageEXRshortREIT - Industrial$30.6B$34.1B+11%
SterisSTEshortMedical Devices$21.8B$19.4B−11%
Northrop GrummanNOCmiddleAerospace & Defense$84.4B$93.7B+11%
McKesson CorporationMCKshortMedical Distribution$87.9B$97.5B+11%
Healthpeak PropertiesDOClongREIT - Healthcare Facilities$11.7B$10.4B−11%
Roper TechnologiesROPshortSoftware - Application$58.3B$52.2B−11%
HologicHOLXmiddleMedical Instruments & Supplies$14.9B$16.4B+10%
Aon plcAONmiddleInsurance Brokers$78.4B$86.5B+10%
Royal Caribbean GroupRCLshortTravel Services$85.3B$94.0B+10%
ExelonEXCmiddleUtilities - Regulated Electric$45.8B$50.4B+10%
Ingersoll RandIRshortSpecialty Industrial Machinery$30.4B$27.3B−10%
Genuine Parts CompanyGPCmiddleAuto Parts$18.6B$20.4B+10%
Phillips 66PSXshortOil & Gas Refining & Marketing$48.4B$53.3B+10%
AflacAFLshortInsurance - Life$56.0B$61.6B+10%
Philip Morris InternationalPMshortTobacco$260B$234B−10%
Nike, Inc.NKEshortFootwear & Accessories$111B$101B−10%
Southern CompanySOshortUtilities - Regulated Electric$104B$94.1B−10%
Xcel EnergyXELshortUtilities - Regulated Electric$43.4B$39.3B−9%
Coca-Cola Company (The)KOshortBeverages - Non-Alcoholic$299B$271B−9%
Consolidated EdisonEDshortUtilities - Regulated Electric$37.5B$34.2B−9%
Las Vegas SandsLVSshortResorts & Casinos$36.2B$39.4B+9%
PaychexPAYXmiddleSoftware - Application$50.1B$45.8B−9%
AmerenAEEshortUtilities - Regulated Electric$27.5B$25.1B−8%
MarketAxessMKTXmiddleCapital Markets$7.0B$7.6B+8%
W. W. GraingerGWWshortIndustrial Distribution$45.9B$49.8B+8%
Public Service Enterprise GroupPEGshortUtilities - Regulated Electric$42.8B$39.4B−8%
SynopsysSNPSshortSoftware - Infrastructure$119B$109B−8%
FirstEnergyFEmiddleUtilities - Regulated Electric$25.1B$27.0B+8%
Walt Disney Company (The)DISmiddleEntertainment$207B$223B+8%
DatadogDDOGmiddleSoftware - Application$47.3B$43.9B−7%
AutoZoneAZOshortAuto Parts$68.1B$63.2B−7%
C.H. RobinsonCHRWshortIntegrated Freight & Logistics$13.9B$14.9B+7%
WabtecWABshortRailroads$32.2B$29.9B−7%
Best BuyBBYshortSpecialty Retail$14.3B$13.2B−7%
CloroxCLXmiddleHousehold & Personal Products$15.5B$16.6B+7%
Linde plcLINshortSpecialty Chemicals$221B$205B−7%
CMS EnergyCMSmiddleUtilities - Regulated Electric$22.2B$23.7B+7%
SalesforceCRMmiddleSoftware - Application$238B$222B−7%
CoinbaseCOINmiddleFinancial Data & Stock Exchanges$78.0B$72.8B−7%
Ball CorporationBALLshortPackaging & Containers$14.6B$15.5B+7%
PrologisPLDshortREIT - Industrial$99.9B$93.3B−7%
Expeditors InternationalEXPDshortIntegrated Freight & Logistics$16.3B$15.2B−6%
Marriott InternationalMARlongLodging$72.0B$76.6B+6%
Tesla, Inc.TSLAshortAuto Manufacturers$1,032B$965B−6%
Domino'sDPZshortRestaurants$15.1B$14.1B−6%
Federal Realty Investment TrustFRTlongREIT - Retail$8.2B$8.7B+6%
T-Mobile USTMUSshortTelecom Services$269B$286B+6%
Illinois Tool WorksITWmiddleSpecialty Industrial Machinery$75.1B$79.6B+6%
MicrosoftMSFTshortSoftware - Infrastructure$3,902B$3,669B−6%
Baker HughesBKRshortOil & Gas Equipment & Services$44.3B$47.0B+6%
CME GroupCMEmiddleFinancial Data & Stock Exchanges$101B$95.4B−6%
JPMorgan ChaseJPMshortBanks - Diversified$820B$868B+6%
Duke EnergyDUKshortUtilities - Regulated Electric$97.4B$91.8B−6%
Johnson ControlsJCIshortBuilding Products & Equipment$68.9B$72.8B+6%
Dover CorporationDOVshortSpecialty Industrial Machinery$23.9B$22.6B−6%
CenterPoint EnergyCNPshortUtilities - Regulated Electric$25.2B$23.8B−6%
NiSourceNIshortUtilities - Regulated Gas$19.7B$18.6B−5%
Danaher CorporationDHRshortDiagnostics & Research$140B$132B−5%
J.M. Smucker Company (The)SJMshortPackaged Foods$11.6B$11.0B−5%
eBay Inc.EBAYshortInternet Retail$42.3B$44.5B+5%
Chipotle Mexican GrillCMGmiddleRestaurants$57.2B$60.2B+5%
Tractor SupplyTSCOmiddleSpecialty Retail$31.9B$33.6B+5%
Atmos EnergyATOlongUtilities - Regulated Gas$24.9B$23.7B−5%
Ross StoresROSTshortApparel Retail$47.9B$50.3B+5%
Constellation BrandsSTZshortBeverages - Brewers$29.8B$31.2B+5%
ServiceNowNOWmiddleSoftware - Application$189B$180B−5%
Keurig Dr PepperKDPmiddleBeverages - Non-Alcoholic$45.4B$47.5B+5%
Targa ResourcesTRGPmiddleOil & Gas Midstream$35.4B$37.0B+5%
CSX CorporationCSXmiddleRailroads$67.1B$70.1B+4%
Eaton CorporationETNmiddleSpecialty Industrial Machinery$140B$134B−4%
KLA CorporationKLACshortSemiconductor Equipment & Materials$117B$113B−4%
WEC Energy GroupWECmiddleUtilities - Regulated Electric$35.3B$36.8B+4%
F5, Inc.FFIVmiddleSoftware - Infrastructure$18.6B$19.4B+4%
Darden RestaurantsDRImiddleRestaurants$23.9B$22.9B−4%
Invitation HomesINVHmiddleREIT - Residential$18.5B$17.8B−4%
ExxonMobilXOMlongOil & Gas Integrated$454B$472B+4%
Air ProductsAPDshortSpecialty Chemicals$64.3B$66.8B+4%
Waters CorporationWATshortDiagnostics & Research$16.5B$17.1B+4%
Norfolk SouthernNSCshortRailroads$63.5B$61.2B−4%
FactSetFDSmiddleFinancial Data & Stock Exchanges$14.8B$14.3B−3%
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.AJGshortInsurance Brokers$74.1B$71.7B−3%
Williams-Sonoma, Inc.WSMshortSpecialty Retail$24.7B$25.5B+3%
ConocoPhillipsCOPshortOil & Gas E&P$118B$121B+3%
Alliant EnergyLNTshortUtilities - Regulated Electric$16.9B$16.4B−3%
WeyerhaeuserWYlongREIT - Specialty$18.4B$17.9B−3%
AvalonBay CommunitiesAVBlongREIT - Residential$26.8B$27.4B+3%
Insulet CorporationPODDshortMedical Devices$19.5B$20.0B+2%
CopartCPRTshortSpecialty Business Services$45.6B$44.4B−2%
DTE EnergyDTEmiddleUtilities - Regulated Electric$28.9B$29.6B+2%
Rockwell AutomationROKmiddleSpecialty Industrial Machinery$37.0B$37.9B+2%
BNY MellonBKshortBanks - Diversified$72.1B$73.7B+2%
Equity ResidentialEQRmiddleREIT - Residential$24.8B$24.4B−2%
IDEX CorporationIEXmiddleSpecialty Industrial Machinery$12.0B$12.2B+2%
CiscoCSCOshortCommunication Equipment$274B$270B−1%
AltriaMOlongTobacco$106B$105B−1%
McCormick & CompanyMKCshortPackaged Foods$18.6B$18.4B−1%
Emerson ElectricEMRmiddleSpecialty Industrial Machinery$77.3B$78.3B+1%
Goldman SachsGSshortCapital Markets$219B$217B−1%
EvergyEVRGshortUtilities - Regulated Electric$16.9B$17.0B+1%
Eversource EnergyESshortUtilities - Regulated Electric$24.3B$24.1B−1%
Automatic Data ProcessingADPmiddleSoftware - Application$126B$125B−1%
Hershey Company (The)HSYshortConfectioners$38.2B$38.0B−1%
PPL CorporationPPLshortUtilities - Regulated Electric$26.7B$26.9B+1%
Mettler ToledoMTDshortDiagnostics & Research$25.2B$25.0B−1%
Colgate-PalmoliveCLshortHousehold & Personal Products$68.4B$68.7B+1%
GoDaddyGDDYmiddleSoftware - Infrastructure$22.1B$22.1B+0%
Zebra TechnologiesZBRAmiddleCommunication Equipment$15.7B$15.6B−0%
Trane TechnologiesTTshortBuilding Products & Equipment$95.0B$95.2B+0%

Example: The Forecasts Behind One Valuation

Every valuation in the table above is built from fundamental forecasts like these, shown here for one company, Nvidia (NVDA), as a worked example: revenue, earnings, net margin, and shareholder payout through 2035, forecast on August 5, 2025. The amber line is our median forecast; the shaded fan is the P10–P90 range.

Revenue forecastnow $149B

2030 forecast $250B$463B $800B (P10 – P50 – P90)

Earnings forecastnow $76.8B

2030 forecast $62.5B$169B $384B (P10 – P50 – P90)

Net margin forecastnow 51.7%

2030 forecast 25.0%36.5% 48.0% (P10 – P50 – P90)

Shareholder payout forecastnow 33.9%

2030 forecast 10.0%42.5% 65.0% (P10 – P50 – P90)

historicalFS forecast (median)P10–P90 range

Prediction Market Forecasts vs. the Market

Every position, open and resolved, plotted by how the market priced YES at entry vs our forecast. Distance from the diagonal is the edge we traded on.

openresolved, wonresolved, lost

Hover or tap a dot for details

Stock Valuations vs. the Market

Every company, plotted by the market's valuation vs ours (log scale). Distance from the diagonal is the upside we see — above it we're long, below it we're short.

longshortmiddle

Hover or tap a dot for details